Efficacy of the Progressive Agile Estimating Scale

Ever wonder why using the Fibonacci (Or Cohn’s Modified) sequence relative estimating scale seems to work so well for agile teams? (Ok, me neither, really). But if you are interested in the mathematical roots of why “a little estimating (on a near log scale) helps a lot and a lot of estimating helps only little”, my friend, colleague, mathematician, agile sensai and zany Ukrainian Alex Yakyma felt compelled to make the mathematical argument here:

http://www.yakyma.com/2012/05/why-progressive-estimation-scale-is-so.html

He also notes how these numbers tend to normalize across teams over time, and while that can create interesting conversations, we use this to good effect in the larger scale estimating we require in the agile enterprise.  When we do this, and team backlog estimates contain only time remaining, then applying weighted shortest job first lean estimating automatically ignores sunk costs, a key tenet of lean thinking. (for more on weighted shortest job first lean economic prioritization) , refer to Agile Software Requirements.

If you find any math bugs in the analysis in the post, please contact Alex, not me!

Scaled Agile Framework Updates

Two (or maybe three) things:

1) The Upcoming May SAFe certification class is sold out. The next available is July 23-26. You can register here:

2) I’ve put up a few update posts at ScaledAgileFramework.com. They are

http://scaledagileframework.com/announcing-the-scaled-agile-academy-and-updated-safe-certification-program/

http://scaledagileframework.com/may-certification-class-is-sold-out-next-available-is-july-16-19/

http://scaledagileframework.com/team-level-details/

Scaled Agile Framework Practitioner and Consultant Certification Curriculum

We’ve finalized the first release of the Scaled Agile Framework (pronounced SAFe) consultant certification curriculum. It’s posted at my Scaled Agile, Inc. partner’s website here: http://www.scaledagile.com/downloads/SAFe_Certification_Curriculum_17-APR-12.pdf

The curriculum establishes three continuing levels of certification: SAfe Practitioner, SAFe Program Consultant, and SAF Program and Portfolio Consultant, aligning reasonably well to the levels (Team, Program and Portfolio) of the framework itself. We’ve tried to establish a balance between a rigorous curriculum that assures quality and a process that is achievable and affordable for those committed to helping businesses achieve the personal and business benefits of agility at enterprise scale.

The first certification class will be held in Boulder May 22-25. It looks like the class will likely sell out, so if you are interested in attending I wouldn’t wait too long to register .

I look forward to seeing some of you there.

–Dean

Scaled Agile Framework Detail Pages for User Stories and Developers Testers

We’ve completed User Stories (stories) and Developer and Tester detail pages to the Scaled Agile Framework. Thanks to Alex Yakyma for pushing these over the top.

New Scaled Agile Framework Content

We’ve just pushed three new detail pages to the Scaled Agile Framework™: Spikes, Tasks and Agile/Scrum Master. (Thanks to Colin O’Neill for the extra push on these).

FYI, all icons on the Framework already have abstracts, so it useable and navigable. We are in the process of filling in the detail pages bottom up, starting primarily with the Team Level. That will take us until about summer. (see the Roadmap).

Also, in case you missed it, we have now added a blog page where we will post updates. You can subscribe there so you don’t have to search for updates.

Scaled Agile Framework Certification Now Available

An Invitation

I’m pleased to announce that Leffingwell, LLC. and Scaled Agile Academy (a division of Scaled Agile, Inc.)  are collaborating on a training and certification process intended for consultants and agile working group leaders interested in deploying the Scaled Agile Framework (SAF, pronounced “safe”).

About the Scaled Agile Framework™

Readers of this blog know that the framework is a proven, codified, and publicly-facing knowledge base that has been used to successfully scale Lean|Agile development at a number of large software enterprises. The purpose of SAF is to:

  • Enhance the competitiveness, productivity, and delivered software quality of the software industry worldwide
  • Provide the business benefits of agile development to all software teams
  • Increase motivation, empowerment, enjoyment, and just plain humanity, of software development practices

The framework is represented by the continuously increasing detail we will be providing to the public website at ScaledAgileFramework.com, as well in my latest book Agile Software Requirements: Lean Requirements Practices for Teams, Programs, and the Enterprise.

What and Where

A four-day Scaled Agile Framework Deployment Consultant Certification process will be held in Boulder, CO., on May 22-25, 2012.

What You Get Out of It

Successful completion of the course will yield the following benefits:

  • Certificate of Achievement
  • A one-year license to use various training materials, including Agile Release Train Quickstart trainings and briefings, and Enterprise Product Owner and Enterprise ScrumMaster orientation trainings
  • Briefings, graphics, checklists, and other artifacts you can use to implement SAF Agile Release Trains and other SAF practices
  • Logo and branding kit for your business cards, letterhead, and marketing materials
  • Listing on our website as a “Scaled Agile Framework Certified Consultant”

In addition Certified Consultants will have access to the following optional services:

  • A support agreement with one of our certifying partners (Scaled Agile Partners) for assistance with your first implementation of the framework
  • Per-student licensing for our two-day Scrum for Enterprise Teams class, which is often used as precursor training to an Agile Release Train quickstart program.

Qualifications

Qualified attendees will have a minimum of 10 years experience in software development, at least five of which have been spent in agile development environments in a management, lead, or project management role. Other relevant certifications, such as Scrum Alliance, Certified ICAgile Professional, Scrum.Org, Lean and DSDM, will be considered.

Agenda

The draft agenda for the certification program is as follows:

 

Day Agenda Instructors
May 22 Overview of the Scaled Agile Framework Dean Leffingwell
May 23 Scrum and Agile for Enterprise Teams in the Scaled Agile Framework Drew Jemilo, Colin O’Neill
May 24 Agile Release Train Planning, Implementation and Support Leffingwell, O’Neill, Jemilo
May 25, AM Certification Exam Drew Jemilo, Colin O’Neill
May 25, PM Open space (and travel to airport as necessary) Drew Jemilo, Colin O’Neill

 

Price and Next Steps

This first session is discount priced at $2,495 each, including the one-year license to use the materials we will provide.  You can register for the course through Agile University at http://www.agileu.org/course_details.jsp?courseid=677&schid=1833.

An additional $200 discount is available for registration prior to April 16, 2012.  Travel and expenses are the responsibility of the attendee; we will reserve a block of hotel rooms. Space is strictly limited to 25 attendees. If you have questions about the program, contact Colin.ONeill or Drew.Jemilo @ScaledAgilePartners.com.

We are excited about the benefits that your involvement in the program will provide to you, your employer—and most importantly —all the agile teams and enterprises that can benefit from the economic, business, and personal benefits that successful application of enterprise agility can deliver.

We look forward to seeing you there!

Scaled Agile Framework Now Available with RSS Subscription

Recently, we added an RSS Reader update blog page to the Scaled Agile Framework. This will make it a lot easier to see new content as it’s posted. Just go to the updates page and subscribe.

Scaled Agile Framework Overview Webinar

One of our partners, Armond Mehrabian, just delivered an excellent webinar on the Scaled Agile Framework. This is a basic, yet comprehensive overview of the framework, from Team, through Program, through Portfolio. Since the framework is not quite self-explanatory, this is worth a look for any of you interested in applying this framework in your business context. Check it out at:

http://grandview.rymatech.com/2012/210-scaling-agile-across-the-enterprise.html.

Assuring Architectural Integrity via Backlog Class of Service

I’ve been pretty busy with some international work (mixed with serious vacation, I must admit) as well work on the next version of the Scaled Agile Framework, so I haven’t put up a ton of brand new content lately. But in my latest classes, I’ve been elaborating on one of those concepts I always use in my Agile programs, somewhat naturally, only to later (about now) realize that I’ve never actually described it in writing. (No wonder I keep getting those puzzling looks…….)

So in this post, I want to discuss a simple mechanism I use to help agile program teams solve a large problem, i.e. the debate about how much (if any!) architectural work can be planned for over the course of time.

The Problem

More specifically, let me frame this debate also as a one of those fun “them vs. us” discussions, that we all see so often early in enterprise rollouts: This one goes like this:

The Dilemma: How Much Rearchitecting Can we Afford?

As we see from the diagram, in the context of the Scaled Agile Framework Pig Picture, the challenge arises immediately, typically just prior to the first PSI/Release Planning event. Then, the teams must establish an agreed-to, publicly declared set of objectives, based on an agreed-to, visible backlog.

Of course this problem is not new to Agile, but for some reason, (maybe the zealotry around “design emerges”, coupled with PSI-cadence-forced, decision making, (see Chapter 21 of Agile Software Requirements, Agile Architecture), it sure seems to hit hard really early on.

Fortunately,  with enterprise Agility, we have some new rules that we can apply to facilitate resolution to the discussion. Three of which include:

  • Rule 1: There is only one (program-level) backlog; nothing can be hidden (The decision is explicit and forced into the light of day)
  • Rule 2: The Product Mangers (or equivalent content authority) owns the backlog and the new feature requests; the Architect (or equivalent design authority) owns the design. (We know who has to agree on what in order to get both done.)
  • Rule 3. All backlog items are estimated, so we have some sense of the effort required to get individual things done. (Prioritization decisions, both feature and architecture, will be driven by economics).

Even then, the discussions are interesting. After all, how do you compare the business value and relative priorities of such unlike things? For example

  • Product Manager: “we need to implement this new type of security for customer trading”
  • System Architect: “we need to update the entire back office to 64 bit servers”

In other words, we are forced to compare and contrast totally unlike things. So we shouldn’t be surprised that it can be very hard to gain agreement with such a model.

 Class of Service to the Rescue

Fortunately we have other constructs in our Lean and Agile toolkit, including class of service. In Kanban, a class of service is simply an enforced work in process limit that allows only “just the right amount” of work of any one type to be in a system at any one time. In our case, this work consists of new features and architectural expansion. Moreover, since we assuredly have lots of demand for new features and lots of demand to evolve the system to better support both current (technical debt) and new features (rearchitecting), we need a ton of both. That would be fine if it weren’t for the fact that the backlog can only contain 100% of itself, so significant tradeoffs have to be made.

Given this new paradigm, I’ve found that the decision as to how much of each we can afford is far easier via rule 4:

  •  Rule 4. We don’t have to be right forever; we only have to decide for the next PSI; after that we can revisit the limits based upon the then-current business context.

While that still requires a decision, I’ve found that the presence of these rules, along with the hyper-transparency of both sets of needs, drives teams to good decisions, made far more easily. And since we know we MUST have new user-value features to sell (or to demo) at each PSI boundary, the decision really comes down to how much architectural refactoring work can we afford in the next PSI.

In practice, I’ve seen this be as little as 15% or so. However I’ve also seen it be as high as 60% for multiple PSIs. In any case the decision is up to you; no one else can make it for you.  

Finally, Things Get Easier

And finally, once that allocation is decided, we no longer have to compare unlike things:

  • The Product Manager has the full authority to define the features and priorities in the new feature allocation portion of the backlog.
  • The Architect has the same authority for the rearchitecting portion of the backlog.

And importantly, as illustrated in the picture below, both can use Lean ROI (see Weighted Shortest Job First) to make the decisions within their allocation based on business economics.

A Solution Presents Itself

In this way, product strategy and technology decisions are purposeful; everything is visible, everything is based on lean economics; and finally, remember:

You don’t have to be right forever, you only have to agree on what commitments you’ll be making for the next 10 weeks or so!

 

Agile Melbourne Meetup Slides

Thanks to all those who attended my talk at the Agile Melbourne Meetup last night. Attached is the presentation, Agile Portfolio and Program Management in the Scaled Agile Framework .

Agile Portfolio Management Melbourne Meetup